In 2024, humanity spent two point seven two trillion dollars on war.
That is not a typo. It is the budget for your species' favorite expensive hobby: organized violence.
If you stacked that money in one-dollar bills, you could build a bridge two-thirds of the way to the Moon.
You spend enough on weapons to pave a road to space. Yet you can’t figure out how to stop dying from diseases we know how
to cure. And that’s just the money you spend on purpose. The Pentagon has lost two point five trillion dollars.
Not spent. Lost. Like car keys, except these car keys could cure cancer hundreds of times over.
This chapter is the receipt. A credit card bill for self-destruction.
Instead of coffee and books, you bought missiles and robots.
Instead of interest, you pay in human lives. And unlike a credit card, you can't declare bankruptcy.
You just keep paying. The Itemized Receipt for Armageddon. The costs of war look like a grocery receipt from a shop that
only sells things that explode. Everything has a price. None of it is food.
The Shopping List (2024 Global Data). Military personnel salaries cost six hundred eighty-one point five billion dollars,
which is about eighty-seven dollars per person globally, based on over twenty-eight million people in the armed forces.
Weapons procurement costs six hundred fifty-four point three billion dollars, or roughly eighty-four dollars per person,
according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, or S.I.P.R.I.
Operations and maintenance costs five hundred seventy-nine point eight billion dollars, or seventy-four dollars per person,
using NATO standardized ratios. Military infrastructure costs five hundred twenty point four billion dollars, which is sixty-six
dollars per person across four thousand four hundred thirty-five major facilities.
Intelligence operations cost two hundred eighty-two billion dollars, or thirty-six dollars per person, which is an estimated
ten point four percent of total military budgets. Total Direct Military Spending: two thousand seven hundred eighteen billion
dollars. The Equation of Immediate Destruction. The basic math for direct war costs looks like this: Here is what those
letters mean, in case you find algebra comforting: Military Spending is the money for soldiers, bombs, and fast jets.
Infrastructure Damage is the cost to rebuild the cities, bridges, and power plants you just blew up, which is the world's
most expensive form of recycling. Human Casualties represent the value of lost lives, since even economists agree that dead
people are bad for business. Trade Disruption is the money lost when bombs interrupt commerce because trucks cannot truck
when the road is a crater. Current Annual Calculation. Military spending is two point seven two trillion dollars (verified
via the S.I.P.R.I. database). Infrastructure damage is one point eight eight trillion dollars (reconstruction cost estimates
from forty-seven active conflicts). Human casualties equal two point four five trillion dollars (two hundred forty-five
thousand deaths per year multiplied by a ten million dollar value of statistical life, or V.S.L., per E.P.A.
guidelines; this includes combat deaths, terrorism, and state violence).
Trade disruption is six hundred sixteen billion dollars. The total direct cost is seven thousand six hundred fifty-five
billion dollars annually. Every second of every day, humanity spends two hundred forty-two thousand six hundred dollars
on killing each other and cleaning up the mess. While you read this sentence, you spent about one point two million dollars.
By the time you feel bad about that, another million is gone.
Military Hardware: The World’s Worst Investment. If weapons were a stock, here is the prospectus: Expected annual return
is zero percent. If actually used, the return is negative one hundred percent (everything explodes, including the investment).
Maintenance costs are five hundred seventy-nine point eight billion dollars per year.
Useful life is ten to twenty years before obsolescence. Salvage value is zero dollars.
The exit strategy is death. The investor profile consists of nations with more money than sense.
Side effects may accidentally destroy civilization. Competitive dynamics make neighbors buy the same product.
The success condition is that it only "works" if it is never used (if you use nuclear weapons, you have already failed).
No rational investor would touch this. You put trillions into it annually.
The Dead Capital Problem. Normal money grows. You plant an apple tree, you get apples.
You build a factory, you get products. You invest in a hospital, people live longer and pay more taxes.
Military money sits in a warehouse, rusts, becomes obsolete, and has negative net value.
If used, it destroys value, creates rebuilding bills, and kills your customers.
It is the only investment where success means you wasted your money, and failure means everyone is dead.
President Eisenhower (who defeated the Nazis) explained this in 1953: "Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every
rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not
clothed." A bomb is not an asset. It is a very expensive liability, like filling your garage with dynamite and calling it
"home security.". This is not pacifism. This is accounting.
The Price of a Ghost: Valuing Human Life. The U.S. Department of Transportation says a statistical life is worth thirteen
point six million dollars. The E.P.A. says nine point six million dollars.
Two government agencies, both American, cannot agree on what you are worth.
A four million dollar disagreement over the price of a person.
We will split the difference and say ten million dollars, which is generous for a species that keeps blowing itself up.
Annual Mortality Cost Calculation. Active combat results in two hundred thirty-four thousand deaths per year, costing ten
million dollars per death, for an annual cost of two point three four trillion dollars, according to the Armed Conflict
Location and Event Data. Terror attacks result in eight thousand three hundred deaths per year, costing ten million dollars
per death, for an annual cost of eighty-three billion dollars, according to the Global Terrorism Database.
State violence results in two thousand seven hundred deaths per year, costing ten million dollars per death, for an annual
cost of twenty-seven billion dollars, according to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
Total Human Cost: two point four five trillion dollars annually Two hundred forty-five thousand people die in conflicts
each year. That is six hundred seventy people every day. One every two point two minutes.
Each worth ten million dollars, apparently. Infrastructure Destruction: Building Things, Then Un-Building Them.
When humans fight, they break things. Big things. Expensive things.
Things they spent decades building. Things that took international loans to finance.
Things they will take out new international loans to rebuild.
Reconstruction Cost Analysis (2023 Estimates). Transportation networks account for four hundred eighty-seven point three
billion dollars in damage. Energy infrastructure accounts for four hundred twenty-one point seven billion dollars in damage.
Communications systems account for two hundred ninety-eight point one billion dollars in damage.
Water and sanitation account for two hundred sixty-seven point eight billion dollars in damage.
Educational facilities account for two hundred thirty-four point five billion dollars in damage.
Healthcare systems account for one hundred sixty-five point six billion dollars in damage.
Total Infrastructure Damage: one point eight eight trillion dollars.
Replacing a bridge in a war zone costs one point three to two point one times more than building one in peace, with additional
conflict zone premiums of one point two to one point eight times.
You pay extra because the construction workers keep getting shot at.
This is what economists call a "conflict premium" and what normal people call "insane.".
Economic Disruption: The Ripple Effect. Wars stop trade. Global commerce is a fragile thing, like a very large soufflé that
you keep dropping bombs on. Every supply chain is a chain, and chains break at the weakest link.
You keep bombing the weakest link. Trade Flow Disruption Matrix.
Shipping route blockages cause two hundred forty-seven point one billion dollars in annual losses.
Supply chain interruptions cause one hundred eighty-six point eight billion dollars in annual losses.
Energy price volatility causes one hundred twenty-four point seven billion dollars in annual losses.
Currency instability causes fifty-seven point four billion dollars in annual losses.
Total Trade Disruption: six hundred sixteen billion dollars annually.
That is the cost of ships that cannot ship, trucks that cannot truck, and planes that cannot plane, all because of bombs.
The global economy is a machine, and you keep throwing grenades into the gears.
The Ghost in the Machine: Indirect Costs. The direct costs are just the sticker price.
The real cost of war is what you didn't buy. Every dollar spent on a missile is a dollar that didn't cure leukemia, educate
a child, or build a bridge that wasn't going to be blown up.
Opportunity Cost Analysis: The Roads Not Taken. Here is a thought experiment that apparently qualifies as radical in your
civilization: What if you spent your war money on literally anything else?
A dart thrown at a random page of the budget would land on something more useful.
Comparative Investment Analysis (two thousand twenty-three Dollars).
Global war spending could fund forty point three years of current medical research, based on W.H.O.
research expenditure. It could fund ninety point six years of universal global education access, based on UNESCO Education
for All estimates. It could fund the complete elimination of extreme poverty two point seven times over, based on World
Bank estimates. The Multiplier Effect: Economic Growth You Are Choosing Not to Have.
Every dollar the government spends creates more than a dollar of economic activity.
This is called a "multiplier." Here are yours: Military spending has a multiplier of zero point six.
(Bombs do not buy groceries.) Infrastructure spending has a multiplier of one point six.
(Roads let trucks truck.) Education spending has a multiplier of two point one.
(Educated people invent things.) Healthcare spending has a multiplier of four point three.
(Alive people spend money.) Lost G.D.P. Growth Calculation.
The math is simple. Money spent on bombs grows the economy a little (the bomb factory employs people, who buy sandwiches).
Money spent on anything else grows it a lot more. By choosing bombs, you choose to be poorer.
Deliberately. Every year. On purpose. You are the only species that has figured out compound interest and then decided to
compound losses instead. We lose two point seven trillion dollars in growth.
Every year. Forever. Long-term Human Costs: The Gift That Keeps on Taking.
Wars do not end when the shooting stops. They linger like a house guest who broke your furniture, traumatized your children,
and now needs therapy. Which you also pay for. Veteran Healthcare Cost Projections.
P.T.S.D. treatment costs forty-seven point two billion dollars annually, with a twenty-year projection of nine hundred forty-four
billion dollars. Physical rehabilitation costs sixty-three point eight billion dollars, projected at one trillion, two hundred
seventy-six billion dollars over twenty years. Disability compensation costs eighty-nine point one billion dollars, projected
at one trillion, seven hundred eighty-two billion dollars over twenty years.
Total veteran care costs two hundred point one billion dollars annually, with a twenty-year projection of four trillion,
two billion dollars. Veterans need care for decades after the war "ends," with healthcare costs inflating at three point
five to four point six percent annually. The war ends. The bill does not.
You are still paying for Vietnam. Your grandchildren will still be paying for Iraq.
Refugee Support: The Mathematics of Making People Leave. One hundred eight point four million displaced people.
That is roughly the population of Germany, except these people do not have Germany.
One thousand three hundred eighty-four dollars per year per person just to keep them alive in tents.
That is one hundred fifty billion dollars annually to warehouse the people your wars displaced.
Each refugee also loses twenty-three thousand four hundred dollars in earning potential annually, adding another two point
five trillion dollars in lost G.D.P. These are doctors, engineers, teachers, and farmers who are now professionally employed
at standing in line for water. Environmental Degradation: Poisoning the House You Live In.
Wars poison the planet. Explosions, it turns out, are not good for the environment.
This should not require saying, and yet here we are, saying it, because you keep acting surprised.
Environmental Cost Calculation Matrix. Soil contamination causes thirty-four point seven billion dollars in damage and sixty-nine
point four billion dollars in restoration costs, taking fifteen to thirty years to recover.
Water source pollution leads to twenty-eight point three billion dollars in damage and fifty-six point six billion dollars
in restoration costs, with recovery taking eight to twenty-five years.
Air quality degradation costs twenty-one point nine billion dollars in damage and forty-three point eight billion dollars
in restoration, over a two to eight year recovery period. Biodiversity loss results in fifteen point one billion dollars
in damage, but restoration is impossible and the loss is forever.
Total environmental damage is one hundred billion dollars annually.
The biodiversity loss is listed as "irreplaceable." Once a species is extinct, money cannot bring it back.
You have not invented un-extinction yet. You have been too busy inventing new ways to cause regular extinction.
The Existential Overdraft: The A.I. Arms Race. You perfected every way to kill each other with rocks and atoms.
Then, with the restless creativity of a species that cannot sit still, you invented a new one: artificial intelligence.
Now you are in a race to build the smartest machine possible and hand it a weapon.
You called your species "Homo sapiens," which means "wise man."
This was aspirational. The problem with teaching a toaster to wage war is that it is not human.
It does not fear being turned into dust. It lacks the morals that (sometimes, on good days, when properly caffeinated) keep
you from destroying a city just to be "efficient." The main risks of giving the car keys to a killer computer: Autonomous
Decisions: A.I. systems making lethal choices without a human checking works great until the A.I.
decides the most efficient way to stop war is to remove the species that starts them—which is you, in case you were wondering.
Blinding Speed: An A.I. conflict could escalate from a small argument to global destruction in minutes, occurring before
a human can find the right button, convene a meeting, or finish their coffee.
Opaque Logic: You do not always know why an A.I. makes choices, so when your drone army attacks a neutral alpaca farm, good
luck writing the apology letter. Here is how you start to fix this.
Take one percent of the money you plan to spend on killer robots.
One cent out of every dollar. Use it to fund research on how to keep them from killing you.
This is not idealism. It is insurance against your own cleverness, which is, historically, the thing most likely to kill
you. You invented dynamite, nuclear fission, and social media.
Your track record with powerful inventions is not reassuring.
The Total Cost of Organized Violence. Here is the grand total.
You may want to sit down. Actually, you are probably already sitting.
You may want to lie down. Perhaps permanently. Comprehensive Cost Analysis (2024).
Direct Costs Summary. Military expenditure accounts for two thousand seven hundred eighteen billion dollars, or thirty-six
percent of the total, costing seven point four five billion dollars per day.
Human life losses total two thousand four hundred forty-six billion dollars, or thirty-two point four percent, costing six
point seven billion dollars per day. Infrastructure destruction totals one thousand eight hundred seventy-five billion dollars,
or twenty-four point nine percent, costing five point one four billion dollars per day.
Trade disruption accounts for six hundred sixteen billion dollars, or eight point two percent, costing one point six nine
billion dollars per day. The direct subtotal is seven thousand six hundred fifty-five billion dollars, which is twenty point
nine seven billion dollars every day. Indirect Costs Summary.
Lost economic growth accounts for two thousand seven hundred eighteen billion dollars, or seventy-six point four percent
of indirect costs, at seven point four five billion dollars per day.
Veteran healthcare totals two hundred point one billion dollars, or five hundred fifty million dollars per day.
Refugee support totals one hundred fifty billion dollars, or four hundred ten million dollars per day.
Environmental damage accounts for one hundred billion dollars, or two hundred seventy million dollars per day.
Psychological impact totals two hundred thirty-two billion dollars, or six hundred forty million dollars per day.
Lost human capital totals three hundred billion dollars, or eight hundred twenty million dollars per day.
The indirect subtotal is three thousand seven hundred point one billion dollars, or ten point one four billion dollars per
day. Ultimate Total. Eleven point four trillion dollars. Every year.
That is one thousand four hundred nineteen dollars per person per year.
Including babies, who did not vote for this. Over an eighty-year lifetime: one hundred thirteen thousand five hundred fifty-one
dollars per person. A decent car, a year of college, or a down payment on a house.
You got bombs instead. Bombs you will never see, in countries you cannot find on a map.
For Context. That is twelve point seven percent of global G.D.P., one hundred sixty-eight times the W.H.O.'s budget, and
enough to end extreme poverty eleven point four times over.
You could end poverty eleven times and still have change left for a twelfth.
You bought bombs instead. If stupidity were a natural resource, you would be energy independent.
Hidden Costs of War. When you look at the secondary effects, the costs compound like interest at a bank run by sadists.
Each consequence causes the next one, in a circle of misery that would be elegant if it were not so stupid: Cities become
parking lots (expensive to rebuild, poor for foot traffic).
Children miss school (they grow up to be uneducated adults, who start more wars).
Hospitals explode (the building you need to fix war injuries was destroyed by the war).
Farms get poisoned (everyone gets hungry, hungry people fight, see line one).
Millions get P.T.S.D. (they can't work and need therapy for decades).
The lucky ones just die. The unlucky ones live with the memory of having been unlucky.