1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:02,150 The Roadmap to End War and Disease This isn't a protest. It's a recipe. 2 00:00:02,820 --> 00:00:09,860 Step one, collect papers from rich humans (using greed). Step two, get two hundred and eighty million humans to click a 3 00:00:09,860 --> 00:00:14,680 button (using paid referral bonuses, because your species won't save itself for free). 4 00:00:15,340 --> 00:00:21,180 Step three, apply papers to politicians until the treaty happens (using the only language they understand). 5 00:00:22,140 --> 00:00:29,620 Every step has a budget, a timeline, and a contingency plan for the fact that you're you. 6 00:00:29,620 --> 00:00:36,080 This isn't a protest. It's a recipe. Like making bread, except instead of bread it's curing diseases, and instead of yeast 7 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:42,800 it's (legal) bribes. High-Level Strategy: The Three-Step Recipe for Not Dying. 8 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:48,020 Humans love steps. You put them on everything. Step one: Breathe. 9 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:55,640 Step two: Keep breathing. Step three: Try not to die. You're very methodical about staying alive. 10 00:00:56,360 --> 00:01:03,440 That makes it curious that you spend six hundred and four times more on weapons than testing which medicines work. 11 00:01:04,260 --> 00:01:12,540 Here's your three-step algorithm for fixing this adorable contradiction: Step One: Collect Papers from Rich People. 12 00:01:13,100 --> 00:01:20,140 You convince wealthy humans to give you a large pile of papers by promising them returns that make explosion manufacturers 13 00:01:20,140 --> 00:01:27,880 nervous. This works because rich people are excellent at counting papers but terrible at not wanting more papers. 14 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:36,620 The pitch is simple: "Give us papers now, get more papers forever, also maybe don't die from preventable diseases." 15 00:01:37,140 --> 00:01:42,440 Even humans who think vaccines cause five G can understand "more papers good.". 16 00:01:43,460 --> 00:01:51,760 Step Two: Tell Humans the Referendum Exists. Use some papers to launch a global marketing campaign so two hundred and eighty 17 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:59,380 million people learn there's a referendum and vote on it. This achieves more than most political movements involving shouting. 18 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:08,300 The referendum isn't a simple yes/no. Each voter gets a wishocratic slider to set their preferred allocation between military 19 00:02:08,300 --> 00:02:10,820 spending and clinical trials. The results are aggregated to determine humanity's collective preferred split. 20 00:02:10,820 --> 00:02:16,310 It's a species-wide budget meeting. You'd think the outcome would be obvious. 21 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:20,520 But humans once thought the sun went around Earth, so you have to ask. 22 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:28,560 This creates what's called "political pressure." That's when politicians realize that voters exist and some of them have 23 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:34,690 opinions. Step Three: Apply Papers to Politicians Until Treaty Happens. 24 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:41,540 Deploy the remaining papers to convince politicians that supporting the treaty is the only way to remain employed. 25 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:48,920 The treaty passes. Twenty-seven point two billion dollars per year flows from murder to medicine. 26 00:02:49,460 --> 00:02:54,760 Forever. Or until the sun explodes. Whichever happens first (probably the sun). 27 00:02:55,700 --> 00:03:01,340 The Sacred (Legal) Bribery Sequence. Humans respond to papers. 28 00:03:01,900 --> 00:03:06,890 This is your most important discovery about Earth. You tried appealing to morality (failed). 29 00:03:07,620 --> 00:03:13,500 You tried appealing to logic (failed harder). But papers? Papers work every time. 30 00:03:14,100 --> 00:03:22,360 Here's the precise order for distributing papers to specific categories of humans: (Legal) Bribe Category number one: Rich 31 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:31,200 People (The Paper Collectors). Who you're (legally) bribing: Wealthy humans who have many papers and want even more papers, 32 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,460 despite already having more papers than they could spend in several lifetimes. 33 00:03:36,340 --> 00:03:43,750 The (legal) bribe you offer: Modeled on World War Two War Bonds, except instead of four percent returns for funding death, 34 00:03:44,060 --> 00:03:47,930 these pay two hundred and seventy-two percent for funding not-death. 35 00:03:48,620 --> 00:03:56,300 Like war bonds except backwards. Why they accept: Because rich humans can read a spreadsheet, and no spreadsheet in history 36 00:03:56,300 --> 00:04:03,130 has ever said "give up two hundred and seventy-two percent annual returns because you feel weird about the source.". 37 00:04:03,220 --> 00:04:08,790 Money-back guarantee: If the treaty fails, they get their papers back via assurance contracts. 38 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:13,780 Funds are escrowed until milestones hit. Automatic refund if targets are missed. 39 00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:20,790 This is basically saying "if everyone dies from preventable diseases, you'll be too dead to complain about losing money.". 40 00:04:21,660 --> 00:04:29,400 What happens: Defense contractors lose one percent of their revenue but discover a new twenty-seven point two billion dollars 41 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:32,760 a year health spending market has appeared where there used to be nothing. 42 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:38,400 The same companies that build missile guidance systems can build medical device supply chains. 43 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:45,860 It turns out building things that go inside humans isn't that different from building things that go inside other humans' 44 00:04:45,980 --> 00:04:49,340 countries. The main difference is whether the end user survives. 45 00:04:50,280 --> 00:04:58,980 The Specific Offer to Bomb Makers. You show weapons manufacturers a spreadsheet (they love spreadsheets): Option A (Current 46 00:04:58,980 --> 00:05:05,220 Job). Operating margin: eight percent. Product: Things that make humans stop existing. 47 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:12,960 Customer satisfaction: N.A. (customers deceased). Market outlook: Shrinking by one percent. 48 00:05:13,820 --> 00:05:21,020 Option B (Your Offer). Operating margin: Similar, except nobody dies (this is new for them). 49 00:05:21,780 --> 00:05:29,740 Product: Things that make humans continue existing. Customer satisfaction: Very high (customers still alive to provide feedback). 50 00:05:30,420 --> 00:05:35,720 Market outlook: Expanding (see Phase four plus). They choose Option B. 51 00:05:36,340 --> 00:05:41,470 Not because they've had a moral awakening, but because their shareholders can read a market forecast. 52 00:05:42,220 --> 00:05:46,400 Weapons manufacturers don't have feelings, but they do have quarterly earnings calls. 53 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:51,760 (Legal) Bribe Category number two: The True Believers (Early Adopters). 54 00:05:52,780 --> 00:05:58,620 Who you're (legally) bribing: Humans who believe in curing diseases AND want to get rich doing it. 55 00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:03,400 These exist. They're called "effective altruists" except they also want a yacht. 56 00:06:04,300 --> 00:06:10,740 On Wishonia we call them "normal," but on Earth apparently wanting to do good AND get paid for it is a whole personality 57 00:06:10,740 --> 00:06:19,080 type. The (legal) bribe you offer: Give two hundred million dollars to get the referendum started (the full thing costs 58 00:06:19,340 --> 00:06:24,960 two hundred and fifty million dollars, but you don't need all of it upfront because humans love joining things that are 59 00:06:24,960 --> 00:06:33,550 already working). In return, they get VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds paying two hundred and seventy-two percent annually. 60 00:06:34,180 --> 00:06:41,280 They're first in line for a twenty-seven point two billion dollars a year pie that didn't exist before they showed up. 61 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:50,000 What they fund: The Global Referendum marketing campaign. Getting two hundred and eighty million people to learn the referendum 62 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:56,220 exists and vote on it. What they get: two hundred and seventy-two percent returns for as long as the treaty holds. 63 00:06:56,680 --> 00:07:02,560 And since their personal wealth now depends on the treaty surviving, they will use their considerable pre-existing influence 64 00:07:02,560 --> 00:07:06,800 over government, media, and other humans to make sure nobody repeals it. 65 00:07:07,280 --> 00:07:10,400 You didn't buy their influence. You bought their self-interest. 66 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:16,180 Their influence comes free. Better: their returns grow with every treaty expansion. 67 00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:21,440 At one percent, bondholders split two point seven two billion dollars per year. 68 00:07:21,880 --> 00:07:26,080 At five percent, five times that. They won't just protect the treaty. 69 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:31,200 They'll lobby to expand it, because every percentage point increase is a direct raise. 70 00:07:31,660 --> 00:07:38,700 The same applies to politicians: the ten percent political incentive allocation scales with treaty size, so legislators 71 00:07:38,700 --> 00:07:44,640 who vote to expand are voting to expand their own campaign war chests and post-office rewards. 72 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:49,780 Why this works: You give them money. They give you money back, plus more money. 73 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:58,280 On Wishonia this is called "a transaction." On Earth it's called "investing," and humans will do absolutely anything for 74 00:07:58,280 --> 00:08:03,020 it. (Legal) Bribe Category Number Three: Regular People (Everyone Else). 75 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:10,620 Who you're (legally) bribing: two hundred and eighty million regular humans (three point five percent of your species, which 76 00:08:10,620 --> 00:08:17,600 history proves is enough to change anything). It's like reaching critical mass, except instead of a nuclear explosion it's 77 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:24,740 democracy (much less lethal). The (legal) bribe you offer: Vote on the referendum via wishocratic slider. 78 00:08:25,300 --> 00:08:31,200 Get paid for telling your friends about it. It's a pyramid scheme where the thing at the top of the pyramid is not dying 79 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:35,480 from preventable diseases. What happens after: Treaty passes. 80 00:08:36,020 --> 00:08:40,120 Twenty-seven point two billion dollars per year flows to clinical trials. 81 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:48,240 Diseases get cured faster. Your healthcare improves. Also, two hundred and eighty million humans now have a personal stake 82 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:55,400 in this thing continuing, and there is nothing more dangerous on Earth than a large group of humans who were promised something. 83 00:08:56,020 --> 00:09:00,660 Why this works: Humans love having opinions. Humans love getting paid. 84 00:09:01,020 --> 00:09:05,720 Humans (allegedly) love not dying. This combines all three. 85 00:09:05,820 --> 00:09:11,900 When three point five percent of the population has voted on something, politicians experience what you call "responsive 86 00:09:12,630 --> 00:09:18,400 governance." (Legal) Bribe Category Number Four: Politicians (The Elected Paper Recipients). 87 00:09:19,500 --> 00:09:26,300 Who you're (legally) bribing: Humans whose job is "get elected by promising things, then do whatever the people with papers 88 00:09:26,300 --> 00:09:32,020 want." Politicians are simple organisms with one evolutionary drive: reelection. 89 00:09:32,900 --> 00:09:39,840 Currently, weapons manufacturers feed this drive. You're going to feed it better, the way you'd lure a dog away from garbage 90 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:46,880 with a steak. The (legal) bribe you offer: Super PAC support from the six hundred and fifty million dollar lobbying budget. 91 00:09:47,860 --> 00:09:50,740 Two hundred and eighty million voters demanding the treaty. 92 00:09:51,260 --> 00:09:57,940 Plus cushy jobs after they leave office for politicians who vote yes: fellowships, board seats, speaking circuits. 93 00:09:58,940 --> 00:10:06,000 You know, the things politicians actually want. Insurance companies realize healthy people file fewer death claims. 94 00:10:06,860 --> 00:10:11,020 Suddenly their lobbyists become your lobbyists. It's beautiful. 95 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:15,520 Like watching a dog realize the mailman has treats. The Package. 96 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:21,120 Papers for campaigns: Massive Super PAC funding (legal bribery). 97 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:25,620 Votes for staying employed: Referendum voters who will vote for treaty supporters. 98 00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:32,000 Post-office rewards: Fellowships, board seats, and speaking circuits for politicians who vote yes. 99 00:10:32,940 --> 00:10:41,260 Power to reward friends: Direct a portion of the one percent Treaty Fund's twenty-seven point two billion dollars to their 100 00:10:41,260 --> 00:10:49,580 home districts (funding pragmatic clinical trials and building decentralized institutes of health for decades of ribbon-cutting 101 00:10:49,580 --> 00:10:58,980 ceremonies). The choice you give them. Option A: Support treaty, get papers plus votes plus legacy as "politician who cured 102 00:10:58,980 --> 00:11:08,440 diseases". Option B: Oppose treaty, discover two hundred and eighty million voters wanted to not die (they're voting against 103 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:14,640 you). Most politicians are excellent at counting votes. The math becomes simple even for them. 104 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:20,420 What happens: Politicians discover they've always been passionate about curing diseases. 105 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:25,080 This sudden passion perfectly coincides with receiving papers and votes. 106 00:11:25,900 --> 00:11:30,580 On your planet, that's called "representative democracy.". The Success Spiral. 107 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:36,440 Each category of bribe creates the next. Rich people fund the referendum. 108 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,500 The referendum creates voters. Voters pressure politicians. 109 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:46,280 Politicians pass the treaty. The treaty makes money. Money funds more cures. 110 00:11:46,680 --> 00:11:55,580 Cures prove it works. More people demand expansion. This is the first time in your history that "I prefer being alive" has 111 00:11:55,580 --> 00:12:01,980 been organized into a political position. This seems obvious, but for humanity it's revolutionary. 112 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:09,800 And unlike current government, where money and influence are tangled in ways nobody can trace, this system keeps them separate. 113 00:12:10,780 --> 00:12:15,960 Investors get money (ten percent). Politicians get career incentives (ten percent). 114 00:12:16,900 --> 00:12:22,240 Neither group touches the eighty percent that goes to clinical trials via wishocratic allocation. 115 00:12:22,860 --> 00:12:28,980 The corruption is capped at twenty percent, transparent, and completely disentangled from the public goods funding. 116 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:36,280 Your current system can't say any of those things. The Timeline: From zero dollars to Ending Death. 117 00:12:37,220 --> 00:12:41,160 You want to end war and disease. You need one billion dollars in papers. 118 00:12:41,580 --> 00:12:45,860 You currently have zero dollars in papers (probably). Here's the recipe. 119 00:12:46,500 --> 00:12:53,230 Phase one: Proof That Voting Works (Months one to three). You build a simple version of Wishocracy. 120 00:12:53,740 --> 00:13:00,840 Basically a referendum platform where humans vote on whether to redirect one percent of the military budget to curing diseases. 121 00:13:01,380 --> 00:13:07,660 If anyone uses it, you've proven humans will participate in democracy when you make it easy and give them points. 122 00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:15,240 You show this to angel investors. Angel investors are humans who give you papers based on a PowerPoint and a dream. 123 00:13:15,820 --> 00:13:20,770 On Wishonia this is called "mental illness," but on Earth it's called "Silicon Valley." 124 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:27,180 Phase two: Scale the Marketing, Hire Professional Bribers (Months four to eighteen). 125 00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,990 Humans will vote when you make it easy and reward participation. 126 00:13:31,560 --> 00:13:38,880 You've proven that. Now you raise more papers from venture capitalists (humans who gamble professionally while wearing suits). 127 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:43,140 You use these papers to market the referendum to millions of voters. 128 00:13:43,560 --> 00:13:50,140 You also hire your first professional lobbyists. Their actual job is "convince politicians that things are good." 129 00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:53,740 Phase three: The Big Paper Sale (Months nineteen to thirty-six). 130 00:13:53,800 --> 00:14:01,460 This is the final boss level. You launch VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds to raise the full one billion dollars you need. 131 00:14:01,980 --> 00:14:09,900 You overwhelm the opposition, run a global "please don't die" advertising campaign, and get the one percent treaty signed 132 00:14:09,900 --> 00:14:13,420 by actual governments who thought weapons were the only option. 133 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:19,060 Feasibility Check: The diplomatic phase alone is much cheaper than the full campaign. 134 00:14:19,420 --> 00:14:24,300 You raise one billion dollars for high probability. See Treaty Feasibility and Cost Analysis. 135 00:14:25,780 --> 00:14:32,250 The Legal Architecture: How to Be a Charity, a Lobbying Group, and a Hedge Fund Simultaneously. 136 00:14:33,740 --> 00:14:38,900 You need to fight on three fronts to win: moral (charity), political (lobbying), and financial (investment). 137 00:14:39,660 --> 00:14:44,060 The problem is your legal system says one organization can't do all three. 138 00:14:44,620 --> 00:14:50,540 Your legal system is adorably complicated, like a board game designed by lawyers having a nightmare. 139 00:14:51,320 --> 00:14:56,980 So you build a four-part machine: The Charity (five oh one c three): This is the "brains." 140 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:04,860 It does research and education. Rich foundations give papers here and get to feel good about themselves (plus tax deductions, 141 00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:11,240 which are like discount coupons for virtue). The Lobbying Group (five oh one c four): This is the "sword." 142 00:15:11,680 --> 00:15:15,520 It takes the research and uses it to wage unlimited political warfare. 143 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:20,040 That sounds scary but mostly involves lunch meetings and PowerPoints. 144 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:29,280 The Corporation (C-Corp): This is the "engine." A for-profit entity that issues the VICTORY Incentive Alignment Bonds and 145 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:34,940 collects the papers. Yes, you need a for-profit corporation to end death. 146 00:15:34,940 --> 00:15:39,880 Your species is hilarious. The Swiss Foundation: This is the "soul." 147 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:45,480 The parent organization owns the corporation, ensuring profits can only fund the mission. 148 00:15:46,020 --> 00:15:50,840 You put it in Switzerland because they're good at keeping things neutral and also chocolate. 149 00:15:50,940 --> 00:15:58,120 This structure lets you legally accept papers from everyone (foundations, political donors, and Wall Street) and aim them 150 00:15:58,120 --> 00:16:05,760 all at diseases instead of each other. Phase four plus: The Expansion Phases (Years four to fifty). 151 00:16:06,580 --> 00:16:13,930 The one percent treaty is just the beginning. Like all addictions, not-dying starts with a small dose and escalates. 152 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,280 The real goal is eventually redirecting *most* military spending to health. 153 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:27,600 Why Expansion Is Built Into The System. The treaty money splits eighty, ten, ten: eighty percent to clinical trials (the 154 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:35,480 point), ten percent to investors (the bribe), and ten percent to political incentives (the bribe for the other kind of human). 155 00:16:36,260 --> 00:16:43,420 That last slice is the interesting part, because it grows every time the treaty expands: In Phase three, spanning years 156 00:16:43,420 --> 00:16:50,380 one to three, at one percent, the political incentive pool is two point seven two billion dollars per year. 157 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:59,420 The treaty passes, and humans cautiously try not dying. In Phase four, spanning years four to seven, at two percent, the 158 00:16:59,420 --> 00:17:03,680 political incentive pool is five point four four billion dollars per year. 159 00:17:04,140 --> 00:17:08,300 Politicians compete to expand (they've discovered voters like living). 160 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:17,079 In Phase five, spanning years eight to twelve, at five percent, the political incentive pool is thirteen point six billion 161 00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:23,020 dollars per year. The health lobby rivals the defense lobby, and lobbyists switch suits. 162 00:17:23,780 --> 00:17:31,820 In Phase six, spanning years thirteen to twenty, at ten percent, the political incentive pool is twenty-seven point two 163 00:17:31,820 --> 00:17:39,340 billion dollars per year. "Funded pragmatic clinical trials" becomes the most rewarded phrase in politics. 164 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:47,640 In Phase seven, spanning years twenty-one to thirty-five, at twenty-five percent, the political incentive pool is sixty-eight 165 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:54,000 billion dollars per year. Superpowers compete on health outcomes (much less radioactive). 166 00:17:54,900 --> 00:18:02,660 In Phase eight, spanning years thirty-six to fifty, at fifty percent or more, the political incentive pool is one hundred 167 00:18:02,660 --> 00:18:10,460 and thirty-six billion dollars or more per year. Historians write confused books about why this took so long. 168 00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:16,200 Here's Why It Keeps Growing. Bond investors get ten percent of all treaty funds. 169 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:20,120 At one percent, that's two hundred and seventy-two percent returns. 170 00:18:20,580 --> 00:18:26,800 At two percent, it doubles. At ten percent, they're collecting ten times their original payout. 171 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:34,120 So they will call their senator and say "please expand the treaty," not because they care about diseases but because they 172 00:18:34,120 --> 00:18:39,640 care about money. You don't have to ask them to do this. They will do it automatically, the way a plant grows toward sunlight 173 00:18:39,640 --> 00:18:42,760 except the sunlight is money and the plant is a billionaire. 174 00:18:43,460 --> 00:18:51,720 You've built a defense lobby in reverse. Politicians see their incentive alignment bonds, or I.A.B.-funded rewards grow 175 00:18:51,720 --> 00:19:00,080 with each expansion. By Stage four, the political incentive pool (twenty-seven point two billion dollars per year) exceeds 176 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:08,520 all current global lobbying combined. At that point, "I support pragmatic clinical trial funding" becomes the most profitable 177 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:15,270 sentence a politician can say, which means they will say it constantly, which means they will eventually believe it. 178 00:19:15,340 --> 00:19:24,720 This is how your species forms convictions. The Endgame. By twenty seventy-five, the math becomes irresistible: One point 179 00:19:24,980 --> 00:19:29,870 three six trillion dollars or more flows to health annually. 180 00:19:30,660 --> 00:19:37,120 One hundred and thirty-six billion dollars or more funds political incentives (more than all lobbying ever). 181 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:44,200 One point zero eight eight trillion dollars or more funds pragmatic clinical trials. 182 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,040 The one percent treaty isn't the goal. It's the first one percent. 183 00:19:49,060 --> 00:19:54,340 Every investor and every politician makes more money if the number goes up, so they will push the number up. 184 00:19:55,260 --> 00:20:01,660 How far it goes depends on whether curing diseases turns out to be more popular than building bombs. 185 00:20:02,300 --> 00:20:10,280 Given that diseases kill approximately everyone and bombs kill approximately fewer people than diseases, the odds seem favorable. 186 00:20:10,740 --> 00:20:12,680 But you're humans, so nothing is certain.